I read carefully this chapter but I still cannot understand this idea.
Well, we assume that there is 1 correct key and $2^t - 1$ incorrect keys. When we test a key, the correct key will verify. We model that MAC as a random function, that is, that an incorrect key will generate an essentially random MAC, and so would verify will probability $2^{-n}$ (as that is the probability that a random $n$ bit value being a prespecified value).
Adding these two together to get the expected mean, we get:
$$1 \cdot 1 + (2^t - 1) \cdot 2^{-n} = 1 + 2^{t-n} - 2^{-n} \approx 1 + 2^{t-n}$$
If $t \ggg n$, then this is essentially $2^{t-n}$ (and so the +1 can be ignored). On the other hand, if (say) $t=n$, this indicates that we can expect (on average) 2 results, the correct one and a 'false hit' (and we might not get a false hit, or we might get several; the 'one' is just an average). And, if $t \lll n$, then this expected mean is almost exactly one, that is, we find the correct key and with low probability, we might get a false hit.
According to me, it must be $2^{(t−n)}−1$
That doesn't work; if we consider the $t \lll n$ case, that would suggest that we have a probability of getting a negative number of keys that work - obviously an absurd result.
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