In symmetric cryptography it is hard to prove security properties on algorithm. Most of block ciphers relies on showing resistances to the current attacks (cf the paper you linked or any paper that introduce a new block cipher). As nobody can know what will be the next attack vector, it is not possible to be prepared against it.
From The design of Rijndael (p 72-73):
5.5.2 Unknown Attacks Versus Known Attacks
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’ (Niels Bohr)
Sometimes in cipher design, so-called resistance against future, as yet unknown, types of cryptanalysis is used as a rationale to introduce complexity. We prefer to base our ciphers on well-understood components that interact in well-understood ways allowing us to provide bounds that give evidence that the cipher is secure with respect to all known attacks. For ciphers making use of many different operations that interact in hard-to-analyse ways, it is much harder to provide such bounds.
5.5.3 Provable Security Versus Provable Bounds
Often claims are made that a cipher would be provably secure. Designing a block cipher that is provably secure in an absolute sense seems for now an unattainable goal. Reasonings that have been presented as proofs of security have been shown to be based on (often implicit) assumptions that make these ‘proofs of security’ irrelevant in the real world. Still, we consider having provable bounds for the workload of known types of cryptanalysis for a block
cipher an important feature of the design.
Some examples of approaches used:
In Rijndael (quite similar to Piccolo but far more developed in their book).
They showed that no differential on the S-box has a probability over $4/256$. Using the Walsh-Hadamard Transform, they also provided a bound on the security against Linear cryptanalysis.
In Keccak
To prove the security of Keccak, the designers followed the bound approach. It is impossible to build a the list of possible differential on the state of Keccak ($2^{1600}$ difference possible).
Therefore it is more interesting to provide some bounds on the difficulty to find a collision.
(Simplified version)
- They calculated the Differential Probability on differences with low Hamming weight on a small number of rounds
- They showed that the Differential Probability decreases when the Hamming weight increases
- They deduced and provided an approximation of the maximum probability on the full round function : $DP \ge \frac{1}{2^{296}}$
For the 24 rounds of Keccak-f[1600], a differential trail has at least a weight 296.
from Differential propagation analysis of Keccak.