In a context involving a block cipher like AES-128, excluding quantum computers, cryptanalytic breakthrough on AES and implementation attacks (poor TRNG, DPA..), and wrench, how confident can we be that by key search, "nobody will crack a 128-bit key" until 2100. Assume business as usual for humanity, use of 1 year worth of global production of electricity, 1 year worth of industrial production for the gear (used over a multi-year period).
Full disclosure: I'm trying to challenge my own half-baked opinion.
Updated: I leave it open if we allow multi-target attacks, where the same known plaintext is available enciphered under many random 128-bit keys. That makes a huge difference, but specifics of the block cipher become less important, which is good.
Note: we have a related question there; but it was considering a 256-bit key size, the methods adequate for that size need not be precise, and have not led to a definitive or even clear conclusion on 128-bit; plus answers are nearly 6 years old, and much more SHA-256 have been performed since then than I would have predicted at the time.
Note: We have another related question there at the 128-bit key level, but it restricts to currently available technology. Here, we must account for foreseeable technology more plausible than quantum computers usable for that cryptanalysis.
Note: 2100 and other limits have been set (instead of the original in the future of humanity as a species) for the sake of making a quantitative answer more falsifiable. Say, global apocalypse on that March 1 because a military subcontractor goofed on the leap year rule.