The best known estimates are still the two that can be found in RFC 3526. Both estimates (with regard to the modulus size) are based on the estimated number of operations required to compute discrete logarithms using number field sieve based methods. The reason the estimates differ, is because of the second estimate does not account for memory/time trade offs that would require arguably unrealistic amounts of storage space.
+--------+----------+---------------------+---------------------+
| Group | Modulus | Strength Estimate 1 | Strength Estimate 2 |
| | +----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | | | exponent | | exponent |
| | | in bits | size | in bits | size |
+--------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 5 | 1536-bit | 90 | 180- | 120 | 240- |
| 14 | 2048-bit | 110 | 220- | 160 | 320- |
| 15 | 3072-bit | 130 | 260- | 210 | 420- |
| 16 | 4096-bit | 150 | 300- | 240 | 480- |
| 17 | 6144-bit | 170 | 340- | 270 | 540- |
| 18 | 8192-bit | 190 | 380- | 310 | 620- |
+--------+----------+---------------------+---------------------+
These estimates do not account for post-quantum cryptography. Arguably, it is not entirely improbable that we will see major break-troughs in quantum cryptography, rendering these estimates moot, long before the difference between estimated 128 bit strength and 256 bit strength will become relevant for most practical purposes. Then again, there might of course be applications that generate a lot of traffic and has to bump the estimated security strength, to guarantee that the advantage of an attacker stays well below $2^{-128}$ even in a shorter term.